Here are some of the links to the election sites and maps I have been showing you in class.
This site, run by Nate Silver, takes polls from around the country and evaluates and combines them to give the chances each candidate has to win each state. It is updated multiple times a day. You can click on each state to see all of the recent polls by different companies. He gained notoriety in 2008 when he predicted the outcome of 49/50 states and then in 2012 when he predicted the outcome in 50/50 states. The site covers all sorts of other things like sports, the economy, and much more.
This site, another personal favorite, takes the current betting odds for each candidate and each state and converts it into an easily understood percentage chance that each candidate has to win. What’s effective and interesting about betting odds compared to polls is that betting odds reflect not what people want but what people think will happen. There is no scientific sampling or anything. The price basically reflects the likelihood people predict of particular outcome. This information is informed by polling but also can instantly change based on new information in the news, a tv commercial, the outcome of a debate, all of which can be reflected in the betting odds way faster than they would show up in the polls. If you believe that the polls are lying and odds on his winning the Presidency are too low than you can bet on him and make money if the outcome is what you expected. At their current prices, if you bet $1 on Donald Trump winning the Presidency, you would win back around $7. If you wagered $1 on Hillary Clinton to win, you would get back $1.21 (that includes the $1 you bet. If a person thought that the price on either candidate was good and did not accurately reflect their chances, they could profit from a bet (betting on US politics is illegal in the US but not in the UK where this data comes from). I don’t bet on politics but watch the betting lines to see how people are thinking about this election.
This site has a wealth of information and interactive maps. You can play around the main page 2016 electoral map by clicking on each state to see what would happen to the electoral vote total by determining the winner of each state. You can also see electoral maps for each Presidential election in history. You can also evaluate other races like the Senate and Governor’s races around the country.
Much of this site is similar to 538’s site but here there are also some interesting graphics and interactives. Worth looking at.
270 to Win “Who Represents Me”
This is a really great resource to get quick information about each state. What is the party breakdown at each level of government? Hover over each state to find out. Who are my representatives? You can enter your address and find out (much more efficient than what I had you do in class, sorry).
Clinton School Participation in Government 